It starts with Buster
You can spend days looking at Fangraphs Zips projections for the 2013 Giants --
Dan Szymborski has this to say, including a suggestion that Tim could follow in the footsteps of Flash Gordon -- The Giants’ success is tied pretty strongly to the health and success of Buster Posey — not merely because only one player (i.e. Mike Trout) posted a higher WAR than Posey in 2012, but also because San Francisco’s catching corps lacks anything like impact talent. At 23, Hector Sanchez certainly has some promise, but even approaching Posey’s production would be a considerable challenge.....
Allow the author to make all necessary caveats and disclaimers regarding, in particular, Matt Cain‘s ability to prevent runs above and beyond those inputs for which WAR accounts. Adjudged solely by runs allowed per nine innings, Cain was worth 6.1 wins in 2012 — and has exceeded his WAR totals by ca. 10 wins by that measure over the course of his career. He’s good. Everyone acknowledges it. Huz-zah.
Otherwise, besides the departure of Brian Wilson (who was non-tendered) and a couple pieces maybe at the very back end of the bullpen, almost the entire pitching staff returns. Tim Lincecum‘s No. 1 comparable player, Tom Gordon, is notable, perhaps: Gordon was an undersized right-hander who made 203 starts between his age-20 and -29 seasons before becoming a dominant reliever. Lincecum, who enters his own age-29 season, has made 188 starts. Despite an underwhelming season in the rotation, Lincecum was excellent out of the bullpen during the postseason.
Here are the pitchers --
| Player | PA | RC/27 | OPS+ | Def | WAR | No.1 Comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buster Posey | 583 | 6.9 | 139 | 5 | 6.5 | Joe Torre |
| Pablo Sandoval | 547 | 5.9 | 125 | 2 | 4.1 | Jim Lefebvre |
| Angel Pagan | 610 | 4.9 | 103 | 4 | 3.5 | Mookie Wilson |
| Brandon Belt | 544 | 5.7 | 121 | 1 | 2.7 | Johnny Callison |
| Gary Brown | 654 | 4.0 | 89 | 5 | 2.1 | Lemmie Miller |
| Hunter Pence | 665 | 4.8 | 104 | -1 | 2.1 | Gary Matthews |
| Andres Torres | 425 | 4.2 | 94 | 4 | 2.1 | Mitch Webster |
| Joe Panik | 640 | 4.0 | 87 | -6 | 1.9 | Liu Rodriguez |
| Marco Scutaro | 542 | 4.2 | 91 | 0 | 1.9 | Mark Loretta |
| Conor Gillaspie | 566 | 4.0 | 91 | 1 | 1.8 | Ernest Riles |
| Brandon Crawford | 475 | 3.3 | 78 | 6 | 1.7 | Craig Cooper |
Dan Szymborski has this to say, including a suggestion that Tim could follow in the footsteps of Flash Gordon -- The Giants’ success is tied pretty strongly to the health and success of Buster Posey — not merely because only one player (i.e. Mike Trout) posted a higher WAR than Posey in 2012, but also because San Francisco’s catching corps lacks anything like impact talent. At 23, Hector Sanchez certainly has some promise, but even approaching Posey’s production would be a considerable challenge.....
Allow the author to make all necessary caveats and disclaimers regarding, in particular, Matt Cain‘s ability to prevent runs above and beyond those inputs for which WAR accounts. Adjudged solely by runs allowed per nine innings, Cain was worth 6.1 wins in 2012 — and has exceeded his WAR totals by ca. 10 wins by that measure over the course of his career. He’s good. Everyone acknowledges it. Huz-zah.
Otherwise, besides the departure of Brian Wilson (who was non-tendered) and a couple pieces maybe at the very back end of the bullpen, almost the entire pitching staff returns. Tim Lincecum‘s No. 1 comparable player, Tom Gordon, is notable, perhaps: Gordon was an undersized right-hander who made 203 starts between his age-20 and -29 seasons before becoming a dominant reliever. Lincecum, who enters his own age-29 season, has made 188 starts. Despite an underwhelming season in the rotation, Lincecum was excellent out of the bullpen during the postseason.
Here are the pitchers --
| Player | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA+ | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cain | 210.7 | 7.65 | 2.35 | 0.73 | 121 | 4.2 | Freddy Garcia |
| Madison Bumgarner | 209.0 | 8.40 | 2.11 | 0.82 | 112 | 3.5 | Eric Milton |
| Tim Lincecum | 188.7 | 9.25 | 3.72 | 0.86 | 98 | 2.2 | Tom Gordon |
| Ryan Vogelsong | 163.7 | 7.15 | 3.13 | 0.82 | 98 | 1.9 | Mike Torrez |
| Sergio Romo | 52.0 | 11.08 | 1.90 | 0.69 | 161 | 1.4 | Ugueth Urbina |
| Barry Zito | 135.7 | 6.04 | 3.52 | 0.99 | 84 | 0.6 | Bob Knepper |
| Santiago Casilla | 56.3 | 8.15 | 3.84 | 0.80 | 108 | 0.5 | Doug Bochtler |
| Chris Heston | 136.7 | 5.66 | 3.29 | 0.72 | 82 | 0.4 | Mike LaCoss |
| Jose Mijares | 50.7 | 8.52 | 3.73 | 0.71 | 107 | 0.4 | Randy Choate |
| Jeremy Affeldt | 55.0 | 7.85 | 3.60 | 0.65 | 105 | 0.4 | Scott Schoeneweis |

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