Sunday, November 18, 2012

Seven years, $110 million

That 's what Chris Quick at Bay City Ball proposes for a deal for Buster Posey -- who will be arbitration eligible next year.It's an excellent post. Here's the meat of it -- 

Ideally in any contract extension with a player of Posey’s caliber, you’re buying out portions of his free agent years, too.  Spit-balling, I think we can comfortably set the bar around $18M for buying out Posey’s first free agent season in 2017. Baseball is flush with cash and the sport seems more profitable than ever. And for the Giants, coming off two World Series titles in three years, things look bright. The Giants consistently sell out home games at AT&T Park and have shown that they don’t mind locking up their homegrown talent such as Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. Posey should, theoretically, be no different.
Thus, Posey’s seven-year, $110M extension would be structured as follows:
Year Salary WAR
2013 6.0 1.3
2014 9.5 2.1
2015 12.5 2.8
2016 16.0 3.6
2017* 18.0 4.0
2018* 24.0 5.3
2019* 24.0 5.3

*Denotes free agent years; WAR denotes at what level the Giants are paying Posey to perform at
Buying out three FA years seems like wishful thinking, but at $18M for 2017 and $24M for 2018-19 Posey should be earning market value. Maybe a little less if salaries continue to escalate. It’s also worth noting that the Giants purchased three years of Madison Bumgarner’s FA years with his very team friendly contract extension. This contract would keep Posey a Giant until his age 32 season. It’s doubtful that he’ll be a catcher in 2019, but it’s likely that the Giants can extract most of Posey’s value as a sterling defensive catcher that hits like an above-average first baseman for the duration of this deal. The Giants are best configured when Posey is catching.  Down the road, if the team needs to, they can move Posey to first base or maybe shortstop
There’s a good bit of risk in paying any player $100M for seven years of work. As we all know, sometimes players get hurt. Or they lose their skills and decline. But Posey’s successful comeback in 2012 should mitigate some of the Giants’ fears about how he might hold up in future seasons. The Giants also place a huge premium on Posey’s leadership qualities. Whether or not you think those exist — or, more appropriately if they matter — the Giants definitely do. I thought Posey looked gassed near the end of the year — and parts of the playoffs — but it’s clear that his 2012 season — MVP award or not — was a rousing success. At 25-years-old, he’ll be expensive to lock up, but I can’t think of a more deserving player.
And, heck, it’s not my money. But there’s something really satisfying about saying “Posey on the Giants in 2019.” Go ahead and mouth those words to yourself a few times. Feels good, right? Feels right. So, a seven-year, $110M deal, the keys to my house, and free reign of my fridge? Deal.

1 Comments:

Anonymous livescore said...

Interesting! It took Buster Posey 112 in-season days to earn $377K, the same amount he made on his postseason bonus. The way things are shaping up after his next contract he will have that laying around in his sofa cushions! Good for him!

3:16 PM  

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