Thursday, March 19, 2009

More clutch hitting = more wins? has a forecast of how the Giants will perform and managed to elicit this nugget of magical thinking from Randy Winn -- Giants right fielder Randy Winn compared this year's Giants to the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks, who allowed 20 more runs than they scored yet won the West with a 90-72 record. "What they did was get a lot of clutch hits," Winn said. "I think that's what we're going to have to do."

I'm glad that Winn is feeling optimistic against the evidence. But the '07 Dbacks were a bit of a mathematical anomaly. Baseball Prospectus noted that the 2007 Dbacks wre the 13th best at ourperforming their projection by 10.9 games due to a strong bullpen, a good starting rotation, strong pinch-hitting and strong baserunning. The best team at outperforming its projection -- the 2005 Dbacks, who finished at 77-85, 14.5 games ahead of their projection.


Blogger Aneel said...

I'm definitely in the "no such thing as clutch-hitting" camp... but, isn't it odd that both the '05 and '07 D'Backs outperformed their projections by such a wide margin? How many players on the '07 D'backs were also on the '05 D'backs?

I guess, I'm not saying you can be good at "clutch" hitting - but for one team to be SO lucky in two of three seasons seems unlikely. It's probably more about the projections missing something.

8:51 AM  

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