Saturday, February 28, 2009

A whiff of hope for the Orange and Black

Baseball Prospectus, which provides the best pre-season analysis for my money, doesn't have much good to say about the 2009 Giants -- hammering Brian Sabean in particular for assembling an outfield of Dave Roberts, Randy Winn and Aaron Rowand at an annual cost of $26 million and noting that the Giants avoided a 100-loss season in 2008 by clobbering the two NL teams that were actually worse than they were -- the Nats and the Padres. Against everyone else, they were 51-85 or a .385 team that should have lost 100 games. Here's how the analysis concludes:

A rotation with Lincecum, Cain, Randy Johnson and Sanchez is awfully hard to write off and if the club can actually add an impact bat at one of the infield corners, they might actually have enough stuff in the lineup to exploit their pitching assets. It won't be enough to contend with but it also won't be a repeat of last year's scavenger-like survival via massacre of that handful of teams even weaker than they were.

One of the more interesting analyses is on Winn, with the note that he's doing his best to earn his $8 million, leading the team's hitters in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) even though he's really a prototypical fourth outfielder. Here's how it ends (boldface is mine) --

Entering the final year of his contract, Winn may actually find his way to a contender by the trading deadline, in which case he could become an important pennant-race patch or fourth outfield. In the meantime, don't blame Winn for the fact that the Giants are one of the worst-run organizations in baseball.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pretty harsh evaluation of Winn. Sure he's on the downside of his career - but based on value wins on fangraphs he was also the 5th best outfielder in the national league last year...

4:07 PM  

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