Winning with Winn
Chris has some excellent analysis that surprised me. For example, he contends Winn's a bargain at $8 million for this year and about the same for 2009, given his offense and defense. I'm a bit skeptical that Winn would be worth $16 million a year as a free agent, based on his 2008 stats, but I found it great reading. Here are some of his comments (boldface is mine) --
-- Winn’s defense added about +1 wins to his overall total and even though he might be borderline for RF with his bat, he’s a better than league average hitter and his defense is very, very good. Randy Winn would be valued around $16.3M on the free agent market for his ‘08 season. The Giants are only paying Winn $8M this year, meaning that they are getting nearly double the performance for what they are paying.
--Bengie’s overall line of: .292/.322/.445 doesn’t look spectacular but when you consider it’s coming from the toughest position to play on the baseball diamond, it looks a lot better. Bengie’s sOPS+ as a catcher is 116, meaning that he’s 16% better than the league average catcher in the National League. Bengie could be an attractive solution for a team that might need a catcher in the offseason. He’s in the final year of his deal and he’s hitting quite well for his position. I think the Giants would do well to listen to offers for Molina’s services. Molina is a player that I was totally wrong on, when he came to the Giants his age and weight had me guessing that he’d be injured or ineffective by year 2 of his deal, Bengie proved me wrong and then some. Molina is valued around $11M on the FA market and he’s set to make $6M in ‘09, a very nice deal for any team.
-- Fred Lewis should head into ‘09 as the starter in LF. On a team like the Giants, one that is transititioning, Lewis is the perfect player. He’s cheap — making league minimum this year — and he’s adding positive value. In fact, Lewis is valued around $9.7M on the FA market for his ‘08 season and the Giants are only paying him 400K. That’s a difference of +$9.3M for the Giants. Good teams do not drastically overpay for talent and Lewis is a great example of getting production for very cheap.