Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Winning with Winn

Chris at the always interesting Bay City Ball has crunched the numbers and found that Randy Winn was the best starter on the Giants with 3.6 wins above replacement value, followed by Molina at 2.4 and Lewis at 2.1.

Chris has some excellent analysis that surprised me. For example, he contends Winn's a bargain at $8 million for this year and about the same for 2009, given his offense and defense. I'm a bit skeptical that Winn would be worth $16 million a year as a free agent, based on his 2008 stats, but I found it great reading. Here are some of his comments (boldface is mine) --

-- Winn’s defense added about +1 wins to his overall total and even though he might be borderline for RF with his bat, he’s a better than league average hitter and his defense is very, very good. Randy Winn would be valued around $16.3M on the free agent market for his ‘08 season. The Giants are only paying Winn $8M this year, meaning that they are getting nearly double the performance for what they are paying.

--Bengie’s overall line of: .292/.322/.445 doesn’t look spectacular but when you consider it’s coming from the toughest position to play on the baseball diamond, it looks a lot better. Bengie’s sOPS+ as a catcher is 116, meaning that he’s 16% better than the league average catcher in the National League. Bengie could be an attractive solution for a team that might need a catcher in the offseason. He’s in the final year of his deal and he’s hitting quite well for his position. I think the Giants would do well to listen to offers for Molina’s services. Molina is a player that I was totally wrong on, when he came to the Giants his age and weight had me guessing that he’d be injured or ineffective by year 2 of his deal, Bengie proved me wrong and then some. Molina is valued around $11M on the FA market and he’s set to make $6M in ‘09, a very nice deal for any team.

-- Fred Lewis should head into ‘09 as the starter in LF. On a team like the Giants, one that is transititioning, Lewis is the perfect player. He’s cheap — making league minimum this year — and he’s adding positive value. In fact, Lewis is valued around $9.7M on the FA market for his ‘08 season and the Giants are only paying him 400K. That’s a difference of +$9.3M for the Giants. Good teams do not drastically overpay for talent and Lewis is a great example of getting production for very cheap.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chris, Just had a comment about how much I have loved the Giants for ages, want to see them come back to those years when Will the thrill was with them, Matt Williams, Kirt M, and Trevor Wilson
I remember some exciting games.What a team! By the way, I heard that Wilson, is once again with a league leading team era. He is in Los Angeles with the instructional league. Pitching coach this year with the Tempe Angels.Yay on Rags, but nay on new contract. With Wilsons record and his eye for recogizing mechanical skill problems with his new pitchers, may be a good replacement for Rags. I do agree tho that after pitchers get in the bigs, it is hard to reconstruct and change some of their bad throwing habits.

9:41 AM  

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