Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Bonds and Soriano

The PEFA Commish at the excellent Sour Grapes site has posted a long analysis of who's going to be on the 2007 Giants. He predicts that Bonds, Finley, both Alous, Hillenbrand, Durham and Schmidt will all be gone. Cain, Lowry, Feliz, Vizquel, Alfonzo and Winn will be back. And Alfonso Soriano is going to be in the Orange and Black at 2B. Here are the two most interesting points:

-- Bonds – gone. I’ve heard Larry Baer discuss this indirectly, and it sounds like the Giants are just salivating over redistributing his contract money.

-- This is where Alfonso Soriano is going to end up. The Giants are believers in having a superstar to build the team around, and they like it for marketing too. They’ve got a nice spot at second base (where he wants to play) just waiting for him. And he’s got legitimate power: of his 41 homers, 20 have been at RFK, a notorious pitchers’ park. He’ll hit plenty of shots into those left field bleachers. And I don’t care about his crappy fielding. How do you think the Yankees feel now about the Soriano-ARod deal now? Six years at $18 million per. It’s in the budget.

Why not Bonds AND Soriano? I remain convinced that Bonds will give it one last try next year, hopefully at a discount, which would enable a Soriano signing, and particularly if the team makes it to the postseason and if he can get past HR 730 in the next 5 weeks. He's still more valuable than he's getting credit for. I keep pointing out this stat -- MLB LEADERS IN ON BASE PERCENTAGE

1. Bonds .453
2. Ramirez .442
3. Hafner .434
3. Mauer .434
5. Abreu .427

7 Comments:

Blogger frank said...

Isn't Bond's OBP skewed by his early season IBBs, which he is no longer getting? What is his OBP for july/Aug?

10:51 AM  
Blogger PEFACommish said...

OK, I get it on Bonds, but at what price? 14 million? 10 million? 7 million? 3 million?

What are you giving up at each level? At 14 million, you could be giving up a Carlos Lee. At 7 million it could be a Lyle Overbay.

Now at 3 million, we're talking. But Barry's not going to take that little, just like Sammy Sosa, who refused to sign a make good contract. Barry's going to want 8 digits. So you are definitely giving up something to accomodate that.

And remember one more thing: Barry is playing way, way, way more games than anyone would have predicted in April. He's been relatively injury free. That might not be the case next season.

Time to turn the page.

11:31 AM  
Blogger PEFACommish said...

OK, I get it on Bonds, but at what price? 14 million? 10 million? 7 million? 3 million?

What are you giving up at each level? At 14 million, you could be giving up a Carlos Lee. At 7 million it could be a Lyle Overbay.

Now at 3 million, we're talking. But Barry's not going to take that little, just like Sammy Sosa, who refused to sign a make good contract. Barry's going to want 8 digits. So you are definitely giving up something to accomodate that.

And remember one more thing: Barry is playing way, way, way more games than anyone would have predicted in April. He's been relatively injury free. That might not be the case next season.

Time to turn the page.

11:32 AM  
Blogger Big D said...

You are right, frank. His OBP at the end of June was .480 so it's gone down to .453 because July is .425 and August is .401. It's still pretty good. Here's the link --

http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats/mlb_individual_player_gamebygamelog.jsp?playerID=111188&statType=1

11:37 AM  
Blogger Big D said...

PEFA Commish -- Perhaps I am naive, but I remain hopeful that Barry would be willing to discount his 2007 contract significantly, given his diminished production and his nearness to HR 755.

12:13 PM  
Blogger PEFACommish said...

Big D, I hope you're right, but I gotta tell you...I'm laughing.

You think/hope that Barry Bonds is going to admit he's been mediocre for a couple of years, admit that for the good of the club he should take way less than what he's earned all these years while he's been putting lots of butts into the seats? This is the same guy whose buddy marched off to jail AGAIN to protect him.

Has Barry Bonds ever done anything that would hint at this selfless streak you're hoping for?

It may not sound like it, but I'm a Barry Bonds fan. I think he's been great, maybe the greatest. But I'm also an accountant, and I'm adding up the numbers, and at this moment in time I'm looking at the price tag it will be worth to keep Barry for one more season to watch his shot at the record.

I just think there is a big, big, big difference (over $10 million) between the bid and ask prices for Barry's services next year.

5:48 PM  
Anonymous Boof said...

We all need to get over the Barry era. It's been a long ride, but's it is over, done, kaput. Barry is just a shell of player now.

He can't even get around on the fastball anymore. His legs will not allow it. They also will not allow him to be a decent fielder with no arm anymore. He is a huge defensive liability now. Add that to the fact that he can't play every day, two-thirds of the time is optimistic - and you get to the answer that he's not worth it anymore.

Now you add in the effect that he has on the clubhouse and it really tips the scales to saying goodbye. Sorry, but his time has come and gone. It's been great, but the future was yesterday. Hanging on to the past any longer is pure folly.

6:17 PM  

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